China’s Outbound Tourism is Forecast for Significant Growth in 2026

China’s outbound tourism is forecast for significant growth in 2026, driven by visa waivers, new flight routes, and evolving traveller preferences, with strong demand for Europe, the Middle East (especially Saudi Arabia and UAE), and Asia. 

Key trends include AI -powered trip planning, increased interest in sports - related travel, and demand for personalized, high - end experiences, with overall outbound trips potentially adding 10 million compared to 2025. 

According to a study led by China Trading Desk, a company specializing in travel marketing and technology, China’s overseas tourism is expected to accelerate this year, with an estimated growth of between 6% and 13%.

These projections detect that Chinese travellers will be able to make between 165 and 175 million cross -  border trips this year, up from approximately 155 million in 2025. These estimates include both visits to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and trips to more distant destinations in Europe and Africa. 

Among to the markets expected to show strong demand this year, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam are singled out as the three most popular destinations for Chinese travellers, thanks in particular to convenient air connections and a diversified tourist offer. 

China Trading Desk’s study highlights the easing visa policies and the strengthening of the yuan as growth factors. The Yuan which has appreciated more than 1% against the US dollar in the last month, may make destinations where expenses are denominated in dollars more affordable.

Regarding visa policies Russia has allowed visa - free entry for Chinese tourists until September 2026 ,Turkey implemented a similar measure already this January, and Brazil will implement a visa - free entry soon. 

On the betting side, Chinese tourism in Japan may suffer a sharp drop. The China Trading Desk estimates that Japan will receive only 4.8 to 5.8 million Chinese visitors in 2026, compared to 9.3 million in 2025, due to diplomatic tensions and official travel warnings. 

Monthly arrivals of Chinese citizens in Japan will have fallen to 560.000 in November 2025, then to 530.000 in December, after reaching 715.700 in October, according to official data cited in the study. 

Key Growth Drivers: 

•    Visa - Free Policies: Expanded unilateral visa waivers for countries like Brazil, Germany, and ASEAN nations are boosting inbound and outbound tourism, with long term waivers extending into 2026. 
•    Improved Connectivity: Enhanced flight connections, especially the Middle East and Asia, make travel easier and more affordable. 
•    Evolving Preferences: Travellers seek diverse experiences, from cultural exploration in Europe to adventure in the Middle East, supported by AI tools for independent planning. 

Top Destinations: 

•    Europe: High demand for culture, food, and shopping in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Czech Republic, and Austria. 
•    Middle East (MENA): Fastest  growing region with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar seeing massive increase due to safety, luxury, and stopover programs. 
•    Asia: Continued strong interest, with Southeast Asia benefiting from new transport links.
Shifts and Trends: 
•    Japan Decline: Safety concerns and a sustained “avoid Japan “narrative are impacting travel to Japan, with potential for visits to halve. 
•    AI Integration: Full – scale adoption of AI for trip planning and translation will empower travellers. 
•    Sports and Events: Major events like the FIFA World Cup (2026) and the Esports World Cup will inspire travel. 
•    Luxury and Customizations: High – net – worth individuals are driving demand for premium, personalized travel.

China's outgoing tourism market shows strong momentum at the start of 2026, with predictions oif a significant rebound and increased outbound trips, signalling a new era for China global tourism.

Link 

https://www.publituris.pt/2026/01/12/turismo-chines-no-exterior-preve-crescimento-expressivo-em-2026